The hypothesis underlying the proposed Collaborative Research Centre is that a more consistent representation of parameterised processes and numerical formulations will result in better climate models. To test this hypothesis, therefore, it is critical to thoroughly evaluate the influence of enhanced model formulations, developed in the other project areas, on the realism of climate models. Here, we will focus on two next-generation climate models developed and used by the German climate research community, namely ICON-a/ICON-o and ECHAM6/FESOM.
Efforts towards developing a new generation of energetically consistent models require the availability of tools that can help to identify short-comings and quantify progress (e.g. Figure 1). Therefore, we will develop and apply new diagnostics and metrics that help us to understand the pathways of energy transport and energy conversion, analyse the energetic consistency of existing models and formulate measures taken up by the other subprojects to advance the energetic consistency and quality of parameterisations of climate models. Furthermore, we will develop effective metrics and diagnostics that can be used to quantify the realism of models and unravel the origin of model error. Metrics describing systematic model error in atmosphere, ocean and sea ice using some of the most advanced observational data sets for reference, will be elaborated. Furthermore, dedicated metrics will be developed that capture important weather and climate phenomena resulting from instabilities such as extratropical storms, Euro-Atlantic blocking, or monsoon dynamics. Finally, we will construct metrics able to analyse consistently a large class of extremes occurring across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales.
An important aspect will be the practical implementation of new tools that can be used for model evaluation. We will build on the newly developed Earth System Model Validation Tool (ESMValTool)—a community diagnostic and performance metrics tool for routine evaluation of climate models. By doing so, we can also benefit from other community efforts in developing evaluation tools. Moreover, we can add our new metrics and diagnostics to ESMValTool thereby increasing the applicability and international visibility—and hence the impact—of the research coming out of this subproject.
To aid effective evaluation of the model development activities, coming out of the other research areas, and to guide further efforts, we will design protocols for numerical experimentation, including common model setups, together with the PIs from subproject S2. These protocols will allow direct comparability between different modelling experiments, ensure availability of model output needed to compute all relevant metrics and diagnostics and provide a framework to evaluate model changes in the context of CMIP6-type experiments with ICON-a/ICON-o and ECHAM6/FESOM.
The results will be made available through a web-based tool—the Diagnostics and Metrics Explorer—for effective analysis. We will take advantage of direct collaboration with ongoing Horizon2020 projects (CRESCENDO and PRIMAVERA) dealing with evaluation of Earth System Models in the context of CMIP6.
One of the two ocean models used in the TRR181 project is FESOM (Finite-Element/volumE Sea ice-Ocean Model), which is part of the AWI-CM climate model of the Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI).
FESOM is the only ocean model participating in CMIP6, that is formulated on an unstructured mesh. This allows scientists to flexibly increase horizontal resolution of the model in more energetically active areas of the ocean like the Gulf stream or Agulhas current. The resulting model resolves important details of ocean circulation, but is still computationally efficient.
FESOM ocean currents in Indian and Pacific oceans (100m)
Metrics and Diagnostics for model improvements
The proper protocol and experiment setup for numerical experiments is crucial.
I am Nikolay Koldunov, Post Doc at MARUM and Alfred Wegener Institute. Since October I begin to work at Research Project S1: Diagnosis and Metrics in Climate Models. The main aim of the project is to integrate and synthesize work done in other parts of the TRR181. In particular we will provide metrics and diagnostics to help access the impact of model improvements suggested by TRR181 on quality of the climate models. One of the main challenges is to create model diagnostics that would not only quantify improvements, but also allow to clearly identify the cause of changes in model behavior. In this respect the proper protocol and experiment setup for numerical experiments is crucial and its development will be important part of my work. The resulting diagnostics will become available for the wider research community through the ESMValTool, that is going to be one of the main instruments of model analysis for the CMIP6 project.
Sidorenko, D., Koldunov, N., Wang, Q., Danilov, S., Goessling, H. F., Gurses, O., ... and Jung, T. (2018). Influence of a salt plume parameterization in a coupled climate model. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems.
Ivanov, V., Smirnov, A., Alexeev, V., Koldunov, N. V., Repina, I., & Semenov, V. (2018). Contribution of convection‐induced heat flux to winter ice decay in the Western Nansen Basin. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans.
Cabos, W., Sein, D. V., Durán-Quesada, A., Liguori, G., Koldunov, N. V., Martínez-López, B., ... and Pinto, J. G. (2018). Dynamical downscaling of historical climate over CORDEX Central America domain with a regionally coupled atmosphere–ocean model. Climate Dynamics, 1-24.
Sein, D. V., Koldunov, N. V., Danilov, S., Sidorenko, D., Wekerle, C., Cabos, W., ... and Jung, T. (2018). The relative influence of atmospheric and oceanic model resolution on the circulation of the North Atlantic Ocean in a coupled climate model. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems.
Faranda, D., Lembo, V., Iyer, M., Kuzzay, D., Chibbaro, S., Daviaud, F., Dubrulle, B. (2018). Computation and Characterization of Local Subfilter-Scale Energy Transfers in Atmospheric Flows. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Vol 75, 2175-2186, doi: 10.1175/JAS-D-17-0114.1
Wang, Q., Wekerle, C., Danilov, S., Koldunov, N., Sidorenko, D., Sein, D., Rabe, B., Jung, T. (2018). Arctic Sea Ice Decline Significantly Contributed to the Unprecedented Liquid Freshwater Accumulation in the Beaufort Gyre of the Arctic Ocean, Geophysical Research Letters, 45, 4956-4964, https://doi.org/10.1029.2018GL077901
Xu, J., Koldunov, N. V., Remedio, A.R.C., Sein, D.V., Zhi, X., Jiang, X., Xu, M., Zhu, X., Fraedrich, K., Jacob, D. (2018). On the role of horizontal resolution over the Tibetan Plateau in the REMO regional climate model, Climate Dynamics, February 8, 2018, 1–18, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4085-7
Sein, D. V., Koldunov, N. V., Danilov, S., Wang, Q., Sidorenko, D., Fast, I., ... and Jung, T. (2017). Ocean modeling on a mesh with resolution following the local Rossby radius. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 9(7), 2601-2614.
Koldunov, N., Köhl, A., Serra, N., and Stammer, D. (2017). Sea ice assimilation into a coupled ocean–sea ice model using its adjoint. Cryosphere, 11, 2265-2281.