The TRR 181 seminar is held by Stéphane Vannitsem (Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium) on
at Universität Hamburg on July 19th at 1pm, Bundesstr. 53, room 22/23 (ground floor).
The prediction of the climate evolution on seasonal and decadal time scales currently attracts a lot of interest. In this seminar, the conditions under which an extended-range predictability of the atmosphere can be expected on this long time scales, are explored. A set of relatively simple atmospheric and climate models are studied using tools from the dynamical system theory. The merit of this approach is to allow for a detailed analysis of their dynamics and to infer the key features leading to an extended-range predictability. It comes out of the analysis that it is not enough to have a coupling between the atmosphere and the other (slow) components of the climate system to get an increase of predictability within the atmosphere, but that new types of solutions should emerge from the interaction between these different components.